EU Short-Term Outlook: Exports of Cereals Forecast to Increase by 14%
Total 2021-2022 production of cereals in the EU is projected to reach 293.3 million tonnes, a 4.3% increase; while EU exports of cereals – already on the rise before the Russian invasion of Ukraine – are forecast to increase by 14%.
Most of the export growth is forecast for soft wheat with an additional 5.6 million tonnes expected.
Assuming average weather developments during spring and summer, according to the report, total EU cereals production could reach 297.7 million tonnes in 2022-2023 – a 1.5% increase, year on year, with soft wheat production forecast at 131.3 million tonnes.
Net exports of EU cereals are due to increase by 11.5 million tonnes to 41.4 million tonnes, almost 40% more.
EU oilseed prices have skyrocketed since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, with rapeseed and sunflower seed prices exceeding €1,000 per tonne, the report stated.
Production levels are not a concern, however, as EU oilseed production was 6.5% higher in 2021-2022 than in 2020-2021 at 30.2 million tonnes, including 10.5 million tonnes of sunflower seeds – up 16.2% year-on-year.
EU oilseed areas are expected to be 4.8% higher in 2022-2023 compared to 2021-2022.
Cereals
In the first months of the 2021-2022 season, world cereals prices increased significantly because of post-Covid-19 demand for animal feed, high energy, and fertiliser prices, and uncertainty about the availability of global stocks.
Prices have, since then, reached record-breaking levels following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the report.
The invasion effectively stopped Ukrainian exports by sea, with much lower exports taking place by train and barges.
Ukraine is the main source of imported maize for the EU – 6.5 million tonnes in 2020-2021.
However, due to a substantial increase in EU cereal production in 2021 and ample availability, EU exports of cereals in 2021-2022 – already on the rise before the Russian invasion of Ukraine – are forecast to increase by 14% to 48.9 million tonnes.
Cereals in 2022-2023
Sowing areas for 2022-2023 winter cereals are estimated slightly above the area of last season. Winter wheat and winter barley sowing areas are estimated at, respectively, 20.7 and 4.8 million hectares (ha), both increasing by 1% year-on-year.
An increase in rye – 2.9% – is expected as well.
Durum wheat and triticale areas, however, are estimated to decrease by around 4% to, respectively, 2.1 and 2.5 million ha.
A boost in maize area is expected following the temporary relaxation of greening rules for fallow land and nitrogen fixing crops but also record high prices that will make the production particularly attractive, despite input prices having gone to new highs, in particular fertiliser prices.
Given high feed prices and expected decrease in EU meat (in particular pigmeat) production, the demand for animal feed is expected to decrease by 1.1% in 2022-2023 compared to 2021-2022.
EU total feed demand could reach 159.1 million tonnes. Net exports of EU cereals are forecast to increase by 11.5 million tonnes year-on-year to 41.4 million tonnes.
The use of cereals for the production of biofuels would also decrease by 8%, the report stated.
